In my daily interactions with recruiting leaders and job seekers, I learn what they are experiencing in the job market.  With that information and a deep dive into the data, I want to share what to expect in 2026.  This post focuses on job seekers and next week we’ll visit the corporate recruiter’s perspective.

The job market in 2026 isn’t going to be better or worse than 2025. It’s going to be different in ways that matter if you’re looking for work. Here’s what the numbers are saying.

The Reality Check

Let’s start with the hard data. JP Morgan predicts unemployment will peak at 4.5% in early 2026, up from the current 4.4%. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Survey of Professional Forecasters has estimates between 4.4% and 4.8%. Indeed’s analysis forecasts 7.1 million job postings by year-end – not growing, just stabilizing.  This mirrors what I’ve seen – there are more people competing for roughly the same number of jobs and, for now, the slow in hiring and increase in layoffs that defined 2025 isn’t changing in 2026.

🔹Entry-Level Positions Are Getting Decimated

If you’re a recent graduate, the data is particularly sobering. Job postings on Handshake dropped 15% this school year compared to last, while applications per opening surged 30%. The National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) reports that employers project only a 1.6% increase in hiring for the Class of 2026 versus the Class of 2025. That’s essentially flat growth in a market where 45% of employers describe conditions as merely “fair.”

Why? AI is systematically eliminating traditional entry-level roles. The research, drafting, analysis, and similar tasks that historically absorbed thousands of graduates annually are increasingly being handled by artificial intelligence. This isn’t a trend.  It’s a fundamental restructuring of the early career pipeline.

🔹Where the Jobs Actually Are

The Bureau of Labor Statistics and multiple industry analyses point to five sectors with documented job growth in 2026:

Healthcare and Social Assistance: Driven by an aging population, this is the strongest hiring area for 2026. Nurse practitioners, medical services managers, and data-driven care coordinators are among the fastest-growing roles. Healthcare will drive the largest share of U.S. job gains this decade.

AI and Cybersecurity: More than 21% of IT recruiters globally expect challenges hiring AI and machine learning specialists in 2026. The demand is for specialized roles that pair AI fluency with security and data governance rather than generalist tech positions.

Clean Energy and Electric Vehicles: Federal CHIPS Act and Inflation Reduction Act incentives are finally converting into tangible hiring. Samsung’s Texas operation, backed by billions in federal support, targets initial production by 2026 with thousands of construction and manufacturing jobs coming online.

Construction and Infrastructure: Chronic talent gaps continue, with historically high openings through 2026 in heavy civil, transportation, and industrial projects.

Semiconductor Manufacturing: Equipment technicians, process engineers, and supply-chain specialists are in demand as domestic fabrication expands under federal funding.

The Monster 2026 Job Market Outlook identifies another pattern: skill-based, credentialed, and hands-on jobs continue to outperform white-collar support roles. If you can keep physical systems running, you’re less exposed to automation.  To learn more about skills-based hiring, read a previous post titled, “Skills First Hiring — The End of College Recruiting?”.

🔹Salary Growth Is Cooling, Not Collapsing

Multiple compensation surveys converge on the same figures:

• Payscale: 3.5% average salary increase budgets for 2026 (down from 3.6% in 2025)
• WorldatWork: 3.6% mean salary increase budgets
• WTW: 3.5% average salary increases
• Mercer: 3.1% merit increase budgets

These numbers represent a return to historical norms after the post-pandemic surge. Wages have risen 21.5% since early 2021, but prices climbed 22.7% – meaning most workers have lost ground against inflation. The 2026 increases won’t change that equation.

One notable point: On-site workers are projected for 4.1% average increases between 2024-2026, compared to 4.0% for hybrid and just 3.6% for remote workers. Proximity still pays.

What Job Seekers Need to Do

It’s clear there is major retooling in the marketplace and these statistics should help clarify job search strategy. Don’t be a generalist. The best move is combining domain expertise with digital skills. Nurses who can work in data-rich care settings. Electricians certified in solar and EV infrastructure. Construction professionals fluent in modeling software. Analysts who can secure AI-enabled systems.  This isn’t saying you have to leave the job you love, it’s looking for ways to upgrade your skills to continuing doing this work in the future. 

And if you’re entering the workforce? Understand that “paying your dues” in entry-level roles is increasingly not an option. You need to arrive with specialized skills, not just a degree.  Be assertive in developing specialized skills (certification programs, apprenticeships, etc.) to get one step closer to the future work you will be doing.

There is a major revolution going on and 2026 will be the year this wave becomes more of a reality.  Job Seekers shouldn’t be afraid of this new world but embrace it.  It’s clear that you will need to do things differently so figure out what that means for your line of work and go make it happen!

ES Talent Solutions helps job seekers build and implement search strategies through our Aspire coaching program.  Want help with your search?  Send a note to us at aspire@estalentsolutions.com .  We’re happy to discuss your search goals and if this program is right for you.

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